Saturday, February 28, 2026
U.S. and Israel strike Iran
The strikes came sooner than expected
Two prices from the same night: one cashed, one torn.
Every morning we price five stories the country argues about, with the money under each.
Five stories reach your inbox every morning, and we show what sits under each headline. First the price on Polymarket or Kalshi. It is what traders pay today for a dollar if the thing happens. Then the money under that price, and whether we side with it or the talking heads.
The crowd saw the war coming, then missed the night it came.
That night, a strike by Feb. 28 sat under 12 cents. The strikes began about two hours later.
We log the crowd’s misses in our public record, next to the pundits’.
Red post: 1:35 a.m., CENTCOM announces the strikes.
Scroll, or run a finger along the rail.
Polymarket, a strike by Feb. 28. Price every 10 minutes, Eastern time. Nearly $90 million traded on it in all.
Every morning you get one line to repeat at the counter.
Traders put half a billion dollars on the date of a U.S. strike on Iran. On the night, the crowd was wrong.
Polymarket, every date on the question of a U.S. strike on Iran: $529 million traded, Dec. 22, 2025 to June 30, 2026.
A price is only as strong as the money under it.
When the pile is thin, our call is neither yet, whatever the cents say.
$300 million under it
We believe: the priceEnough money under it to take the number seriously
$4,000 under it
We believe: neither yetToo little money under it to mean much yet
Tap either price. Both are an illustration from our desk rules.
Tomorrow
We report the board. We never give betting advice.